Delmar, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

207
FXUS61 KPHI 111809
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
209 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Monday before moving out
Monday night. An area of low pressure enters the region for the
middle of next week bringing unsettled weather. A series of cold
fronts move through on Friday and Saturday, keeping wet weather in
the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Early this afternoon, high pressure is centered to the south
near Cape Hatteras and to the north over the eastern Great
Lakes. Upper level and surface lows are located over the lower
Mississippi Valley and western Gulf Coast regions, heading
slowly northeastward. This will be the main player in weather
changes over the next few days.

That said, the impacts through Monday should mostly be minimal.
High clouds starting to move into the region presently will
slowly continue to increase and spread northward tonight and
Monday, gradually thickening as they do so, but we`ll still see
some sun on Monday especially in the morning. Chance of any
showers holds off until late in the day for the Maryland eastern
shore and southern Delaware, and should wait until after sunset
elsewhere. Winds, which are a bit light and variable presently
with a dying front nearby, will become northeasterly this
evening, then southeasterly early Monday, and finally southerly
Monday afternoon, but generally remain in the 5-10 mph range or
less. After highs fairly close to 80 in much of the area this
afternoon, aside from the Poconos and shore where cooler
conditions prevail, lows tonight will mostly be in the 50s from
Philly south, with 40s north of Philly. Monday will see highs
fairly close to 80 again, and again cooler at the shore and in
the Poconos, but also a little cooler south of Philly in the
Delmarva where thicker clouds and perhaps a few late day showers
keep temps a little lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure slowly shifts east Monday night, and then lifts north
Tuesday through Tuesday night. A warm front lifts north through the
region Monday night, and then low pressure slowly moves into the Mid-
Atlantic Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Scattered showers move into Delmarva on Monday night. Showers will
then overspread the area from southwest to northeast through Tuesday
night. Widespread showers hang around through at least Wednesday.
Showers will generally be light, but there could be a few moderate
to heavy showers at times. Flooding risk is low however, and only
have a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall for most of the
region. From Monday night through Wednesday, the area will generally
be around a half inch to an inch, with amounts over an inch
possible, mainly over Delmarva. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible over Delmarva as well Tuesday night, but no real threat
for severe weather.

Clouds and rain will keep the area cooler on Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows at night will be muggy
and in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The approaching closed low gradually opens back up into a shortwave
trough by Wednesday Night as it continues moving towards the region,
then finally passes overhead on Thursday. As the system approaches,
shower coverage should remain fairly widespread into Wednesday night
with some isolated embedded thunderstorms possible. By Wednesday
night, our temperatures fall into the upper 50s to low 60s.

The shower coverage may be a bit more isolated Thursday morning
before becoming a bit more scattered again for the afternoon. For
Thursday, highs reach into the 70s for most. Temperatures do not
fall too much overnight Thursday as lows are mainly in the low to
mid 60s.

There is a brief lull in the unsettled weather Thursday night into
Friday morning, as an upper-level ridge builds in with a weak
surface high pressure system. This will allow drier conditions but
does not do much in the way of cloud cover. The high pressure system
does not last long as more unsettled weather arrives the second half
of Friday. A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will lead to
unsettled weather into Saturday. Both days temperatures look to
climb into the 80s for highs. There is also a signal there for a cold
front to move through later in the day Friday which could lead
to more of a focal point for the showers and any thunderstorm
potential. Another cold front arrives later Saturday, which
could have a similar scenario as Friday by leading to a more
focused area of showers and thunderstorms. Will note that these
series of fronts both Friday and Saturday will have more
instability available than the midweek system. So it bears
watching for the severe potential, as the 500 mb pattern looks a
bit interesting as well. However, would not say there is an
overwhelming signal for widespread severe weather at this point.
This timeframe is a ways away though with uncertainty but does
look active.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR through Monday with increasing high clouds. Winds NW this
afternoon 5-10 kts, shifting northeast, then east, then
southeast by early Monday around 5 kts, then increasing from the
south to 5-10 kts Monday afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Primarily VFR, though showers approach from the
southwest, potentially bringing some restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Primarily IFR with showers and low
clouds expected. Slight chance (15%) of a thunderstorm.

Wednesday Night through Friday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions
likely (80-90%) with low clouds and scattered showers. If there were
a period of VFR, it would be Thursday Night into Friday, though
stratus could hang around. Thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon
(30-40% chance).


&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through Monday. Light offshore
flow today will become easterly tonight and then southerly by
Monday afternoon, increasing to around 10 kts. Seas 2-3 feet on
the ocean.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...SCA conditions expected with seas
5 to 7 feet and wind gusts near 25 kt at times, especially on the
southern waters.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...SCA conditions possible (50-60%)
with seas near 5 feet.

Thursday Night through Friday...No marine headlines expected.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich/MPS
LONG TERM...Guzzo/Hoeflich
AVIATION...Hoeflich/RCM
MARINE...Hoeflich/RCM